This area of the website is where I hang out and talk about interesting tidbits I find or have an opinion on. Check in often to get the latest.

Almost There

We have many applications and uses of technologies that, while new and exciting, do not have the substance to last over time. That is, while we are excited about these capabilities today they all fall short of having what it takes to last. In most cases, these may be interim steps toward lasting options for the future. Let's take a look at some of these and my thoughts on why they are just almost there.

• Blogs - We have the capabilities for everyone to become an author and express themseleves through blogs; the written word. And that is why the blogs are almost there - they are are about reading and writing. Written works are read like reading fine books. They take time to write and time to read. The speed of our world has ramped up to the point that writing and reading is too time consuming. Did you read the book? No, I'm waiting for the movie.
• WiFi - The next five years will bring many exciting wireless technologies to fruition, but WiFi won't be everywhere. And that is why WiFi is almost there - the short range means huge infrastructure costs (time and money). Other technologies available today or in the near future have greater range making it much faster for coverage. Also, many of these hot spot locations are lacking in security and protection for visitors. Be careful about the networks you connect to.
• Podcasting - Using MP3 technology to store programs for people to listen to is exciting; take the time to download, store and listen to one today. And that is why Podcasting is almost there - it is listening without seeing. This is like buying a technology with a black and white display - boring! TV made radio shows obsolete because you can see people on TV. Can we quickly replace podcasting to include the video experience.
• Text Messaging - We now have portable email we can read and write on devices with small keyboards we can carry around. And that is why text messaging is almost there - it is too much work for the results and is only about text. How about voice messages that include seeing the person in real-time. Admittedly, I may be off base on this one.
• Wiki - We now have the ability to gather with many people on jointly writing a Wiki. And that is why Wikis is almost there - material developed/updated by many authors does not provide the background about the authors to lend credibility to the works.

Send me your thoughts on other uses of new technology you know of that tend to fall short of true potential.
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Technologies to Watch

Of all the technologies I track and watch these offer the most promise in the near term. Distruptive technologies, technological advances so powerful they affect massive societal change, are indicated with an astrick.

• 64-bit Chips - They arrive soon courtesy of Apple first. We really need this in our servers (communication and computational) for performance, memory access, storage, and more. To bad we won't get a new Microsoft OS (Longhorn) for this technology until 2006. Once again, software lags hardware.
• Antiangiogenesis Treatment - A method to stop cancer tumors by starving it to death. These drugs work by halting the development of the blood vessels that cancerous cells need to grow.
• Antispam Software - Look for Antispam to advance to a challenge/response technology that requires senders to manually verify their identity before email is passed along to the intended recipient. Also, we may see some legislation soon to alter the nature of email much like laws reigned faxing in.
• Bioinformatics* - The ability to build complex protien models to aid in drug discovery. We need this as an accurate model to identify potential drugs quicker that stand a better chance of working.
• Gecko Tape - A product based on the tiny leg hairs that allow lizard to climb walls gives us a technology that sticks on any surface without glue. Teflon had a good life. Quick - Get anyone wanting to be Spiderman a pair of gloves with this stuff.
• Hemorrhage-Control Bandages - As the name implies, a better bandage currently being used in Iraq to stop the bleeding cause by combat injuries. We get lots of new products during war times because our first thoughts about a new technology is how can we use it militarily. Look for them in your medicine cabinet in 2005.
• LED lightbulbs* - LED technology has advanced tremendously in the last 5 years in that they are much brighter. LED traffic light are all over and many trucks and buses have LED lights. Lightbulbs for the home that can last 10 to 50 times longer while consuming 80 percent less energy. Good news unless they cost 10 to 50 times more (they won't - just kidding).
Articles: 05/03.
• Micro Fuel Cells - Miniature power cells that run on hydrogen or methanol for cell phones, laptops, and other small devices that need to run for weeks/months on a battery.
• Micro Hard Drives - Hard drives will get even small and hold lots more. This is great news for small devices like cell phones and PDAs which will match built-in storage levels with these drives. The perpendicular arrangement of data on the surface of hard drives could increase capacity 5 to 10 fold.
• Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) - These are microsized mechanical assemblies that are as tiny as a speck of dust. A great advancement in the physical size of mechanical technology.
• MRAM - Magnetoresistive random access memory more than 1,000 times faster that the fastest current flash memory and 10 times faster than DRAM. We badly need this next generation storage technology and move on from the very slow 7200 spin hard drives we currently use. Also, offers low power consumption.
• Nanotechnology* - This atomic level minaturization will continue to work its way into our life. You may already be wearing clothing made from a nanotechnology development.
• OLEDs - Organiclight-emitting diodes are brighter and use less power that would be an excellent in cell phones, PDAs, camcorders, flat-panel monitors and more.
• RFIDs* - Radio frequency ID tags have been slow to get off the ground, but more publicity coupled with companies able to spend more on technology improvements this year could lead to application growth in this area. I'm trying to acquire this technology for our Netcom lab.
Articles: 11/16/04, 04/18/04 and 04/18/04.
• Ultra-wideband - A much higher capacity pipe that will start penetrating the home market. Could make broadband a much more affordable option for those comfortable with 3-4Mbps or under.
• VoIP - After much hype there will be significant improvements made starting in 2005. If you want VoIP at home start looking for the IP-enabled phones that will work with your WiFi network in 2005.
• Wireless Broadband - WiMax (802.16a) enables wireless networks to extend as far as 30 miles. This is great new for consumers because they will have more choice in selecting an affordable high-speed connection. 802.16a operates in the 2 to 11GHz frequency range offering tremendous bandwidth between channels with throughputs up to 75Mbps. The 802.16a standard specifies three physical layers for services: a single-carrier access method which was retained for special-purpose networks; a 256-carrier orthogonal frequency division multiplexed (OFDM) multicarrier for mainstream applications; and a special "OFDMa" standard with 2,048 carriers, which can be used for selective multicast applications, and advanced multiplexing options in tiered metro networks. Articles: 07/02/05.

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New and Innovative Technologies

As most of you who know me know, I love innovation and technology. As you have also probably heard, I have been dissapointed with the level of innovation and creation of new and exciting technologies over the last few years. Most new technologies since the turn of the century have been mostly involved in increases in capacity or performance with not much new and exciting. Who cares that they have an MP3 player that can store 20GB of files? Give me something new, innovative and exciting that I feel I've just got to have.

OQO Model 01 - Check out this smallest Windows XP computer in a package less than a pound. The internal WiFi is especially nice since WiFi technology has been too bulky to include in PDAs. Check it out at OQO.

Google Desktop Search - Another great service from Google. This downloadable desktop application gives you the search power of Google on your PC. After downloading Google Desktop Search, you can search your personal items as easily as you search the Internet using Google. Unlike traditional computer search software that updates once a day, Google Desktop Search updates continually for most file types, so that when you receive a new email in Outlook, for example, you can search for it within seconds. The index of searchable information created by Desktop Search is stored on your PC.

I like the way it works through the Google Internet site. Everything in one place. Also, it is really fast once it has completed the initial indexing. Check it out or download it at Desktop Search.

There are others available from Yahoo and MSN that might be better, but I'm giving the credit to the providers of the first one for free.

Palm Tungsten T3 - Finally, a PDA that takes advantage of the dimensions of the screen to give you a portrait and landscape perpective of your information. I don't know why it took so long for PDA manufacturers to get the idea of turning the screen perspective since computers have been doing this for sometime. How long have we had printouts in both perspectives? Anyway, we have it now on a Palm model and I don't expect other manufacturers to take very long adding this feature to their products now that the idea is out. More info here.

Garmin StreetPilot 2610 - Take me to the nearest Chinese restaurant please. In October, Garmin introduced the 3rd generation of GPS technology with this model. The first generation gave us basic mapping to tell where we are and how we had traveled based on longituge and lattitude. After that the devices started mapping the highways and other landmarks and giving us voice command and visual directions on how to travel to sites. Now with this third generation they have integrated the telephone directories to help you search and drive to specific business and other listings. This is an amazing concept given that this basically duplicates the Mapquest Yellow Pages feature and more within your car. The unit is great for getting the phone number of the restaurant so you can call them ahead. Same your money calling information. More info here.

Airpanel Wireless Smart Display - Several enabling technologies like wifi, flat panels, touch screen, and Windows CE to name a few come together to pull off this unique portable display to add to your desktop computer. See more info on this exciting product in two screen sizes: airpanel V110 and airpanel V150.

Samsung SPH-I330 Phone/PDA - Finally, we are getting real close to the ultimate all-in-1 personal communicator. Other cell phone / organizer combination have been really too bulky since the size platform is coming off the PDA. Notice the ads don't show someone holding the device up to their ear like they would a telephone. That is because it is so bulky you would look strange. More info here.

HP IPAQ 1910 Pocket PC - This is the first Pocket PC to truly challenge Palm PDAs. Until the introduction of this model, all Pocket PC PDAs were heavier and thicker in size making it difficult to beat the light weight and slim Palm solutions. These are serious disadvantages. Now, this model exactly matches the Palm m515 in size, weight (IPAQ is slightly lighter), and price (both retail the same), but packs more memory (64M, 46M usable versus 16M) and plays MP3s. The choice is yours although I don't think you will find the IPAQ as heavily discounted as the m515. More info here.

Wi-Fi Detector - This is an interesting product that can quickly help you find "hot spots". We no longer have to look like geeks walking around with a laptop open trying to detect wireless access locations. here.

Found an interesting product you think I might like? Let me know and it might find a place here. Let's work together to find all the really neat things going on. Thanks for your help.
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Other Topics

The War over Pirating Songs

The issue appears to be that the music CDs are considered overpriced as recognized by the behavior of consumers who would rather take the time to file share and burn CDs for personal use.

There is a price-point for music where consumer behavior can be changed. In the past, people bought blank VCR tapes and built impressive collections of recorded movies on tape. The industry recognized that people were not going to buy expensive movies, so they priced them mostly under $20 and today offer more content on DVD packs. As a result, people are buying more movies. I would say people have more purchased movies than taped ones.

The industry is focused on preventing piracy, yet there is no way to truly protecting a song from being copied because if it can be played through a speaker that same source can be fed into a recorder. Here is an article you may find interesting on a recent court battle.

In 2004, Steve Jobs launched the iTunes website where people can download high quality songs for 99 cents each. Is this the music industry solution and will this be the turning point toward more affordable music? Here are thoughts on both sides so you can decide for yourself.

Yes? For the yes perspective, I think there are two factors that play a role in this. First, at 99 cents per song people would mostly buy the popular songs (called cherry picking in the industry). If you liked and bought 5 songs on a CD you would get the songs you really wanted on the CD for $5. Rarely does a CD have more than 5 popular songs you really want. Most of the time you may get by with only purchasing 2 or 3. Secondly, I think the concept of collecting and playing CDs repesenting albums is going away. Many people are not listening to entire CDs anymore. Most are playing a mix of songs they like, so the idea of an album of songs by the same artist isn't practical. This means that since the goal is collecting and playing songs in a jukebox fashion, people will acquire specific songs to add to their collection.

No? For the no perspective, I don't think this idea is acceptable to the music industry. Their business model has been and is to get a few songs played on radio so you will part with $20 bucks and buy the CD. This makes them lots of money. If your focus becomes buying the popular songs, the fight becomes trying to put more songs by the artist on the radio. People will rarely by the other songs by the artist if they haven't heard them very much. They simply can't afford the production of 10 to 16 songs for consumers to focus their purchase on 2 or 3. Also, I'm not sure if people use to getting individual songs for free want to start paying for them. Time will tell.

Black-boxes for Autos?

I found this story interesting since I wasn't aware that manufacturers have been putting black-boxes just like the airplanes have on autos for recording purposes prior to an accident. I did know that many lawyers are acquiring cell phone records to see if you were on a cell phone before the accident you had with their client, but not the black-box technique. And, that I-Pass has started sending warning letters to people who average less that the computed time to travel between to collection centers (toll booths). What's next? Smile for the camera.

Do Not Call Lists

You may have been one of the millions of people who recently visited the government's new Do Not Call Site. You can add you phone number to this list and starting this October some telemarketers will be prevented from bothering you. Unfortunately, this method will not prevent telemarketers from bothering you as much as you and others think. The fine print allows telemarketers to still call you under these conditions:

• You are a current customer. Companies you already buy products and services from can call you and bother you about other offers. This means you will still be bothered by your utilities, credit card companies, banks, etc.
• If you bought a product/service within the last 18 months. This is over one year of trying to get rid of a company you did business in the past. They will constantly call you to win your business back. For example, if you changed long distance providers they will constantly call trying to get you to convert back.
• Not-for-profits and charities can call. Many telemarketing calls are to raise money for anything from museums to police associations. In this current economy many of these organizations are really desperate for funds.

As you can see, while listing your number on this site may reduce your telemarketing calls a little bit, I think may people will be disappointed in the results.